Trump 2.0 at the White House signals a strong president but may also mean a weak presidency
United States former president Donald Trump Photograph:( Others )
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While analysts are still splitting hairs on what made Democratic nominee Kamala Harris lose to the brash, rude, and officially convicted Trump, it is better to look ahead at what the difficult but convincing win might eventually mean for him, the US, and the world at large.
While analysts are still splitting hairs on what made Democratic nominee Kamala Harris lose to the brash, rude, and officially convicted Trump, it is better to look ahead at what the difficult but convincing win might eventually mean for him, the US, and the world at large.
Sometimes the context of an event is more important than the event in question. It might seem like a contradiction in terms but there's a strange subtext to Donald Trump's comeback term at the White House: A strong president need not mean a strong presidency.
While analysts are still splitting hairs on what made Democratic nominee Kamala Harris lose to the brash, rude, and officially convicted Trump, it is better to look ahead at what the difficult but convincing win might eventually mean for him, the US, and the world at large.
As the real estate tycoon-turned-Republican leader made what looked like a victory speech, one could notice in his tone a sense of pragmatic conciliation that stood somewhat in contrast to his first time at the White House when his late-night announcements on the then Twitter (now X) and his combative hire-and-fire approach in dealing with aides made him an obnoxious figure.
Personalities don't change easily but it seems that now there will be a lot of "trying" as distinct from the definitive promise of "doing".
Can Trump seriously build a wall or boost troops at the Mexico border to stop illegal immigrants? Can he seriously fix inflation and the high cost of living? Questions like these need to be answered by administrative action that may not be easy to execute.
The Presidency is not just about what an elected leader does or tries to do but also about the circumstances in which he is functioning. On that count, Trump is up against odds.
True, the Republicans now control the Senate that decides key appointments and it almost looks like the Republicans will also take the House of Representatives in Congress, the US parliament. That makes money bills easier to pass. However, Trump's new term also faces a technological revolution in artificial intelligence and other fields that can have a disruptive effect on jobs.
The strange thing is that employment data and high GDP growth show that the US economy is doing great but as a commentator put it, "It doesn't feel that way" because of high gas prices and mortgage rates.
While tax cuts can increase purchasing power for the average American, one cannot be too sure of how that can help beyond a point. A high budget deficit in which interest payments take away 23 per cent of government revenues is a key challenge.
The US's deficit-to-GDP ratio towers over other developed economies. Public debt is uneasily high. All these are ominous when the BRICS group of emerging economies has increased its cohesion and purpose and points to alternate currency arrangements that threaten the US dollar 's global leadership.
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A potentially weaker dollar can complicate Trump's efforts to fix the economy for the average American. Just how much of Dealmaker Economics can one take in a global economy going through tectonic shifts? Trump's promise, "Make America Great Again" might appeal to conservative domestic lobbies that are predominantly white and male.
But if Trump, the Dealmaker, undermines other global economies, the US as a superpower may lose its edge, as it already has to a good extent. International diplomacy requires a set of skillsets that are not in alignment with Trump's personality or goals.
UK (Labour) and Canada (Liberals) now have governments whose ideologies and policies are not in tune with Trump's right-leaning rhetoric. Also, while it is true that Trump has won a decisive mandate, the US as a vibrant democracy will hold him in check as it did during his first term in office.
California's technology tycoons and Hollywood stars, and a bunch of strong media entities with Democratic leanings, will question every step that Trump takes. Russia, China and an increasingly assertive India together spell a new-age BRICS that implies a new-look multilateralism in global democracy.
From all indications, an inward looking Trump Administration may erode Washington's pre-eminent position in global diplomacy. Trump certainly means business but the context has changed. And that may prove difficult for his presidency.
Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.
